Now Biden and Harris have won the presidential election in 2020. I am curious about whether democrats can still win the next presidential election in 2024. Biden now is 77, so in 2024, he will be 81. And the oldest present once in term of office was 77 years old Reagan. So I think it is nearly impossible for Biden to compete for the next election. Harris may replace him to run as the candidate for democrat. But her opinions are regarded as the most liberal among all senators by GovTrack, an independent nonpartisan website, but labeled as a pragmatic moderates by New York Times, compared to a radical by Fox News. I also checked for some detailed descriptions about her on Politico, and overall I think she is a little bit left among democrat candidates, especially on the questions about paid leave of workers as well as immigrants without US papers. Biden won the election, in my opinion, because of his kind of moderate standpoints. However, Harris, at least now, cannot appeal to median voters as Biden. Besides, after 4 years, people will gradually forget some problems brought up during the Trump era. To make questions simpler, We temporarily put aside whether Trump will run for the next election. Though he declares that a lot, his words don’t always correspond to his behavior and whether other republicans still support him for the next election is still a question. Let’s just suppose half to half. Whether Harris will beat republican opponents 4 years later is really hard to say. But the following one year or two can tell us something.
How Harris would implement policies, amend laws and help the American system operate is worth attention. And of course how people react to her, especially the wobblers and median voters.
The second is how Biden’s team heals and bridges people in different groups. The great divide has already begun during the Obama era. It has been nearly 6-8 years and of course Biden’s first term of office cannot handle it all. A little bit of left-wing candidates is hard to win if the divide keeps the same as in 2020. I guess tech companies will take measures to cope with the divide which to a certain degree is enlarged by tech company’s algorithms. But republicans now are really in a sort of dilemma, because the variety of their base is gradually disappearing and they need to make full use of the divide to win the election. Therefore, the second battle field is the divide.
Let’s just wait and see.
